GOLD DEMAND MAY RISE DURING AKSHAYA TRITIYA:WGC

India may see hectic Gold buying activities during Akshaya Tritiya,an auspicious day for buying precious metals,even as prices of gold are projected to further appreciate in the coming months,the World Gold Council said on Friday,Indian consumers could see further rise of around 24 per cent in gold prices depending on the rupee-dollar movement in the coming months,it said.

"It would be fair to say that this (Akshaya Tritiya) is the most favourable time to buy gold," it said in a statement. At present, gold prices are ruling at Rs 14,300 per 10 gram in the domestic market. "We are confident that on Akshaya Tritiya, consumers will make significant gold purchases as gold is an irreplaceable part of Indian culture and a unique monetary asset," said World Gold Council (WGC), Indian Subcontinent, Managing Director Ajay Mitra. Akshaya Tritiya, which falls on April 27, is considered auspicious for buying gold and silver. Quoting a recent GFMS gold survey, the WGC said gold could easily rebound to the 1,000 dollar per ounce mark, with an added expectation of crossing the 1,100 dollar per ounce barrier in the coming months. Mitra said, "While the current economic conditions may have dwindled returns from other forms of investment, Indian housewives who have been passionate gold investors are still reaping high returns". According to the WGD data, gold has provided an annual average return of 26 per cent over the past decade. Returns from gold during the first quarter of 2009 stood at 17 per cent, he said. "With Akshaya Tritiya round the corner, this positive trend further encourages housewives to make gold purchase at this opportune time in the year," WGC said. During the first quarter of 2009, the average price of gold remained at Rs 14,180 per 10 gram, compared with Rs 12,147 per 10 gram in a year-ago period, it added.

OIL Prices-What next???

It took only 5 months for the price of oil to plummet from $150 to under $40 in the second part of the year. Meanwhile oil consumption did not even decrease 10%, so what is the real cause of this collapse you may ask?Hedge funds. Let me explain.

During the first part of 2008, Western economies were already slowing down noticeably and hedge funds gradually pulled trillions of dollars out of the market and parked them in energy ETFs. At the time Chindia's insatiable thirst for oil and the "decoupling" of east/west economies had many believe commodities were a "sure thing", a sound enough tangible insurance to protect overinflated assets scavenged from made-up bubbles. On top of that, by using leverage, profits were multiplied as oil went up, not a bad deal in a recession.But when the banking industry collapsed, hedge funds had to raise cash by "deleveraging", liquidating their leveraged energy ETF positions sending the price of oil tumbling. Anecdotally shorting of banking ETFs was suspended by the US Securities Commission during that time but not shorting of energy prices, and the leverage mania soon found an escape route in utrashort oil ETFs, compounding the speed of this downward spiral. By December 2008 the oil price had collapsed 75% and frankly, who would complain about cheap gas these days?As we enter 2009 the oil landscape has reversed dramatically from a year ago. The price of oil is lower than production costs and new exploration projects are being cancelled. China flush with cash is currently buying all the oil it can get its hands on to pump into its strategic reserves. Once arrogant OPEC countries are willing to sell oil at any price to fund government programs and prevent political instability.One constant however is the depletion of major oil fields, worse than predicted at 9.1% year over year as we close 2008. It's a matter of when not if the economy recovers and when it does, expect a strong bounce back in the price of oil.

-by Steve Austin.

Whats there in store for us??

Avoid investing in stocks of Oil marketing companies.

Buy stocks like CAirn India-CMP of CAIRNINDIA is 190.4 at 13:11 pm friday,17th April 2009.

Options strategy - By my friend DHARMESH SHAH

THIS STRATEGY IS FOR THE MAY SERIES..

KINDLY CLICK ON THE PICTURE TO VIEW IT CLEARLY.

The strategy is to buy 1 DEEP ITM call and sell 2 ITM

Profit area is 3040-3760

Loss area is below 3040 and is limited to Rs.40

Lower BEP 3040

Higher BEP 3760

Margin Required is Rs-44000-48000

OIL or GOLD???

Investor Jim Rogers said he prefers oil over gold as he believes the International Monetary Fund will sell its reserves following the recent rally in the precious metal.


“The IMF is trying to sell its gold,” Rogers, chairman of Singapore-based Rogers Holdings, said in an interview.
“The IMF is one of the largest holders of gold so you’ve got this huge supply overhang. Whether they sell it or not, the world is expecting them to sell it.”

Reality Behind Real Estate Co's

“Unitech has large number of projects where work hasn’t even started and there is no talk of how they are going to build those things. So just saying I have arranged the money, and I am going to do a little QIP and I am going to borrow some money and do it, doesn’t call for restating. Effectively, if one looks at the balance sheet, companies like Unitech is bankrupt, in all financial terms the company is bankrupt and should have been wound up long back.”
“DLF is still little better because of its assets. It sold its assets to its group company at a profit, booked the profit, did the IPO - the group company cannot pay the money back, so what will one do? - just fold back the group company- could anyone give me basis of this accounting?- I Sold at Rs 5,000 crore the company cannot raise the money, bring it back at Rs 5,000 crore and I booked a profit at Rs 2,000 crore.”
“If we look at both these companies from a financial sense, there is no reason to invest in these companies; we don’t understand the turnaround story. It is true that things are little better in the market but are those companies solvent- I guess the answer to that is no.”

CONCLUSION: The Real estate sector is definitely not a buy and we are not sure where the rally is coming from.Look at the debt of these companies.We are ignoring the 100's of crores of money they have taken from people for the projects, for which the construction has not started yet.And these companies has to build the buildings for which they have been sold for.

EXIT FROM REAL ESTATE COUNTERS>>>

CMP Of DLF 225.75

CMP of UNITECH 41.4 at 12.47 pm 13th april 2009.

Profit booking at higher levels likely; support seen at 3300-3275

Given the exceptional gains in the past few weeks, Indian markets are currently trading in an overbought zone and are due for some Profit Booking.The first sign of profit booking was seen on last Thursday where stock futures shed nearly 1.02 crore shares in open interest. Nifty is likely to see strong support around 3200-3300 levels.
Marketmen are of the view that the quarterly earnings figures and the revenue guidance of IT bellwether Infosys would determine the direction of the market in the second half of this week, which has gained substantially in the past five weeks.
Volatility is likely to heighten, possibly triggering some panic among investors, who are in a dilemma whether to book profits now or hang on till any reversal.
And FInally-The bids received by the board for Satyam are likely to be between Rs 55-65 per share reports CNBC-TV18 quoting NW18 sources

CONCLUSION: Traders and investors can book profits at the current level and wait for 3200-3150 levels to enter into markets again.

Fourth Quarter Results fore-cast.

As the fourth quarter result season kicks off amid a Global Economic Recession let us focus on the 30 Sensex companies to sense what is there in store for us.
For the first time since 1998, when India Inc started declaring quarterly results, most of the sensex companies are poised to post a decline in sales as well as net profits in the fourth quarter.As many as 16 Sensex companies are expected to record a fall in their net profits in the fourth quarter, compared to 14 in the third quarter.The worst is likely to come from sector leaders like Ranbaxy and TATA STEEl.Ranbaxy likely to suffer MTM losses.Tata Steel expected to post a consolidated netloss of over 900 crores(This includes CORUS).

Among others, DLF, Grasim, Hindalco, ICICI Bank, Maruti Suzuki, Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M), Sterlite Industries and Tata Motors could see a significant decline in net profits, while the fall in net for Reliance Industries (RIL), Reliance Communications (RCom) and Wipro could be modest.
The Sensex companies had reported an 11 per cent drop in their net profits despite a single-digit revenue growth in the third quarter. However, in the first two quarters, these companies had recorded a significant growth in their revenues and had also reported growth in net profits.
Most corporate analysts expect ACC, Bharti Airtel, Bharat Heavy Electricals (BHEL), HDFC Bank, Hindustan Unilever, Infosys Technologies, NTPC, ONGC and Tata Power to show a strong net profit growth of over 20 per cent in the fourth quarter.A growth in net sales is expected to come from ACC, Bharti Airtel, Bhel, HDFC Bank, Infosys Technologies, Jaiprakash Associates, Larsen & Toubro (L&T), Maruti Suzuki, Reliance Infra, TCS and Wipro. These firms are likely to show a strong 20 per cent-plus growth.
But DLF, Hindalco, ICICI Bank, M&M, RIL, Sterlite Industries and Tata Motors are likely to show decline in sales.

Conclusion: Morethan half of them are going to report a decline in Net Profit.
Offload stocks like ICICI BANK,M&M ,STERLITE INDUSTRIES,TATA MOTORS,RANBAXY,TATA STEEL.,DLF,Grasim,Maruti Suzuki and Hindalco from your portfolio.

And you can hold stocks like ACC, Bharti Airtel, Bharat Heavy Electricals (BHEL), HDFC Bank, Hindustan Unilever, Infosys Technologies, NTPC, ONGC and Tata Power.Interstingly REliance infra is expected to show a growth in Net sales.


Trade cautiously.Trade with strict Stop Loss.