Sell year-end rally; tough markets over next six months; expect index to correct to 14,500
India has been the worst-performing market this year, falling a third in US$ terms. Peaking inflation and a consequent pause in RBI rates are a positive which will likely help the traditional December rally. However, we continue to expect a tough market over the next six months and expect a correction of the Sensex to 14,500 as growth concerns take center-stage:
1.
GDP growth to slow; downgrades likely: We expect FY13 GDP to slow to 6.8% and consensus to cut GDP forecasts over the next few months. GDP growth in the next few quarters is likely to come even lower at around 6.5%. A slower GDP will be led by: (a) a slowing global economy, (b) impact of high rates and (c) slowing investment spend.
2. Earnings downgrades to continue: We continue to expect earnings downgrades, led by slowing sales and sustained margin pressure from rising labor and interest costs. We expect the bottom-up Sensex EPS of Rs1,275 to be downgraded to Rs1,200 (growth of under 10% vs. expectations of nearly 15%).
3. Valuations will see slight de-rating: Based on analysts’ forecasts, markets at 13x one-year forward PE are at a slight discount to long-term averages. Slow down in GDP and earnings growth as well as falling RoEs will likely lead markets to trade lower.
Secondly, on a relative basis, India trades at a 27% PE premium to GEM markets, higher than a 10-year average of 17%.
Markets stop panicking when policymakers start panicking; year-end index 19,000
The good news is that we could get some positive returns in 2012 if policymakers take steps to reverse the economic slowdown. like a) aggressive rate cuts by RBI: we expect rate cuts from April 2012 (though slow given stick inflation); markets typically rally 3-6 months after the rate-cut cycle starts, and (b) policy reform by the Government.
Sector overweights: Pharma, autos and banks
We play a mix of defensives (through pharma rather than staples) and consumer-related rate sensitives through autos and private sector banks.
