Wednesday, January 25, 2012

Bidding adieu to Jan series.

        The January series comes to an end today after a remarkable journey.Sensex had hit 17000 mark yesterday and Nifty managed to close above 5100 for the day.RBI announced a CRR cut by 50 basis points or half a percent in its policy meet.RBI also lowered the GDP forecast to 7% from the earlier 7.6%. Nifty and Bank nifty surged to make new highs for the day and heavy weights like SBI and L&T closed up by 5% for the day. The much awaited Reliance Ind. buy-back will be open from Feb 1st and will last till Jan 19th 2013.The maximum price for buy-back is set at Rs.870. In the year 2011, Reliance underperformed the index and was down by 35%. Friday after market hours the company announced its results for the third quarter and posted a drop in earnings.The buy-back is widely seen as a cover up for the bad results.

       Rupee today strengthened and closed at 50.07/08 to the US Dollar and in intra-day made a high of 49.925 against the Dollar.

        In the International front, data released yesterday in UK showed that the total public sector debt rose to a record high and crossed 1 trillion pound mark which is around 65% of UK's GDP. The debt plan of Greece reached nowhere yesterday and it triggered a sell-off in European markets.Greece has got more debt than it can actually pay.Adding fuel to the fire , S&P said it may likely declare ratings of Greece to, "Selective default".

        The European indices edged lower for the day and the US indices ended flat to negative.

      IMF said yesterday that the European debt crisis could send the world economy into recession and added that the epicenter of the damage is Europe but the rest of the world is increasingly affected.

       I expect our markets to be volatile ahead of expiry with a negative bias.Weak earnings from Europe can trigger a sell-off in the European markets in the near term.
Nifty rallied 13% from the low it made on December 20th. I would advise caution at higher levels and would advise investors to book profits in banking and realty stocks.PSU banks' earnings to set the tone for Banking index in the near future,Buying index puts in Feb series is advisable. 

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