Wednesday, January 18, 2012

Bulls are back with a Vengeance

Bulls are back with a vengeance in 2012.Let me back this claim with some data.Nifty future is up by 7.4% * since the last trading day of 2011.Rupee continues its strength and finally ended at 50.73 yesterday.Government's move to contain the fiscal deficit by hiking the import duty on gold and silver boosted the sentiment for rupee.As the bulls were looking out for a reason to cheer,Chinese data came in handy.Q4 GDP of China came at 8.9% which was higher than the consensus expectation.Industrial production and retail sales climbed 12.8% and 18.1% respectively compared to the same period a year ago.
  Reliance rallied for the day and ended up by nearly 4% which fueled the rally in the index.Heard from sources that the company may ask the Government to refund its investments if it is forced to give up any portion of the KG-D6 block.Maruti sky rocketed again yesterday as the company had announced price hikes in all its model except Swift DZire.For more information related to the reason for not hiking the prices of Swift DZire, refer to my previous day's article. Metal stocks were star performers as the Chinese data was encouraging.But analysts are pointing out that the lower steel output of China and the lower demand from Europe due to the crisis are the reasons for the fall in BDI(Baltic Dry Index).BDI had fallen down by 50% and was down for the past 19 consecutive days and is below the 1000 mark.It is now near Jan 2009 lows.
  Yesterday, Telecom Disputes Settlement Appellate Tribunal extended the stay on telecom department's ban on 3G roaming.The tribunal would resume hearing on the appeal by the mobile operators on February 2nd if they decide that they have the jurisdiction.
  European and the US markets ended in green as the Chinese data, successful Spanish bond auction(as the borrowing costs fell), and the US manufacturing data boosted the sentiment.US manufacturing rose to a 9 month high in the month of January.It came at 13.48% compared to 8.19% in December and was much higher than the consensus expectation.

 I expect Nifty to open flat for the day.Though some of my trader friends to whom I spoke with are of the view that TCS would rally for the day,I expect it to trend lower.(Disclaimer- Neither me nor my friends to whom I spoke with  have position in TCS).
  The magical 5000 mark is just a few yards away in Nifty.Will the bulls take that out with ease or lose steam and say the grapes are sour? Fingers crossed.



* Closing price on December 30th 2011 for Nifty futures was 4634.40.Yesterday Nifty futures closed at 4977.00

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