Wednesday, April 29, 2009

Market Outlook 30th April 2009

Nifty likely to witness range of 3440-3270: Bhambwani
Profit-booking takes Sensex down 3.2%
Nifty should close around 3400-3420: Edelweiss
Oil extends losses towards $49 on flu, bank worries
Cholamandalam DBS defers declaring results
Fund Action witnessed in Rolta, Aban Offshore
US markets end flat after a choppy session
Asian markets up; Hang Seng rallies 188pts
Hero Motors gets $250-mn order from Canadian Firm
India's Cipla says ready to supply flu drug copy
Reliance Money to trim staff by about 300 employees
ICICI Bank sees heavy volatility; down 6 pc in morning trade
Reliance Big TV plans to divest 49% in DTH arm
IDFC net rises 32% to Rs 116.23 crore in Q4
RIL inks gas pacts with 11 power facilities
Petronet LNG to buy stakes in gas fields abroad
Morgan Stanley picks up 5.1% in Unitech for Rs 400 cr via QIP
TCL ropes in 50k for WiMax broadband
Bajaj eyes banking space, to strengthen financial business

Tuesday, April 28, 2009

Proud to be an Indian

New York Times reader comment on India going to the polls, "The
world's biggest exercise in democracy"
April 15, 2009 It is truly the greatest show on Earth, an ode to a
diverse and democratic ethos, where 700 million + of humanity vote,
providing their small part in directing their ancient civilization
into the future. It is no less impressive when done in a neighborhood
which includes de-stabilizing and violent Pakistan, China, and Burma.

Its challenges are immense, more so probably than anywhere else,
particularly in development and fending off terrorism -- but
considering these challenges and its neighbors, it is even more
astounding that the most diverse nation on Earth, with hundreds of
languages, all religions and cultures, is not only surviving, but
thriving.

The nation where Hinduism, Buddhism, Jainism, and Sikhism were born,
which is the second largest Muslim nation on Earth; where Christianity
has existed for 2000 years; where the oldest Jewish synagogues and
Jewish communities have resided since the Romans burnt their 2nd
temple; where the Dalai Lama and the Tibetan government in exile
reside; where the Zorostrians from Persia have thrived since being
thrown out of their ancient homeland; where Armenians and Syrians and
many others have to come live; where the Paris-based OECD said was the
largest economy on Earth 1500 of the last 2000 years, including the
2nd largest only 200 years ago; where 3 Muslim Presidents have been
elected, where a Sikh is Prime Minister and the head of the ruling
party a Catholic Italian woman, where the President is also a women,
succeeding a Muslim President who as a rocket scientist was a hero in
the nation; where a booming economy is lifting 40 million out of
poverty each year and is expected to have the majority of its
population in the middle class, already equal to the entire US
population, by 2025; where its optimism and vibrancy is manifested in
its movies, arts, economic growth, and voting, despite all the
incredible challenges and hardships; where all the great powers are
vying for influence, as it itself finds its place in the world.

Where all of this is happening, is India, and as greater than 1/10 of
humanity gets ready to vote, it is an inspiration to all the World.

Monday, April 27, 2009

After the Bell.

Nifty tests 3500; banks, cap goods, cement, realty gain.
At 12:18 hours IST, the markets were trading marginally higher amid volatility, as buying was seen in financial, capital goods, realty, cement, select technology and telecom, pharma stocks. However, NTPC, ONGC, SAIL, HUL, Power Grid, Infosys, Tata Power, Ranbaxy Labs and BPCL were under pressure.
Videocon Industries declines sharply
Chambal Fertilisers plunges 5.7%
SAIL melts down
BoB Q4 net up 3-fold at Rs752.69 cr, declares 90% dividend
Akruti City locked at 5% upper circuit
Crompton Greaves maintains its march ahead
GVK Power turns down
Mkts choppy; power, metal, oil mkting cos under pressure
Essar Oil trips on selling pressure
Exit HCL Technologies at Rs 140-145: Bhambwani
Vijaya Bank Q4 PAT seen down 32% at Rs 87 cr
Japan says economy to shrink 3.3 percent this year
IVRCL Infras forges ahead
Ambuja Cements among major gainers
Exide Ind surges on good bottomline
Essar Shipping sails smoothly
ONGC says fire at Hazira gas unit put out, operations normal
Jai Corp locked at 5% lower circuit
Petronet LNG net up 70 pc to Rs 204 cr
Stocks that can be offloaded at current levels
TATA MOTORS,SUZLON ENERGY,SIEMENS,RELCOMM,RIIL.

Market Outlook 27th April 2009

Dalal Street is likely to open on a positive note on Monday following strong global cues but may also see bouts of volatile trading this week, analysts said.
Support for Sensex at 11070: Gaba
Support for Nifty at 3440: Gaba
Dabur to take fizz out of Fanta and Appy
Piramal Life Sciences Q4 net loss at Rs 37.36 cr
TCS to focus on offshoring, to move many staff back to India
Punj Lloyd shifting workforce to India
RIL gets highest number of trademarks in 2008
Merieux may divest stake in Shantha Bio
TN Newsprint to invest Rs 1000 cr
Ranbaxy to cut European operations
Tata to launch GSM with NTT DoCoMo co-branding
ONGC Mittal gets nod for refinery in Nigeria
Anchor Electricals eyes 10% growth
Triveni Eng's net profit jumps 10%
ABG overcomes KoPT board hurdle, bags contract
Indian IT firms try to reduce or push out benched staff
Oil retreats below $51 on risk aversion
3i Infotech March net up 85.2%
Strides Arcolab's EBITDA at Rs 42cr & PAT at Rs 11cr
Institutional investors up stake in top 3 IT cos
Reliance Infra looking at power distribution in UP, Bihar
3i Infotech's revenue grows to Rs 2304.70cr
Essar Oil bounces back
Asian markets open in red; Hang Seng down 302pts



Saturday, April 25, 2009

Heard on the street

Reliance Infra looking at power distribution in UP, Bihar.
Reliance refinery, Wipro, Infy first to get CISF cover.
NHPC all set to heat up thermal power sector.
Forex bets hit Wockhardt bottom line.
Cipla Q4 net up 41% at Rs 253 cr
Strides Arcolab's EBITDA at Rs 42cr & PAT at Rs 11cr
3i Infotech Q4 net profit at Rs 64.03 cr
Dow ends up 119pts; Indian ADRs gain
Crude jumps nearly 4%, metals shine
SBI may guarantee Tata Motors' Rs 2Kcr NCD issue
Saimira scam: Keynote Cap banned from offering trading tips
BILT Q3 net profit down at Rs 17.9 cr
Yes Bank's total net income up 36.9% to Rs 946.2cr
Arch Pharmalabs gets verification mark from USP (PIVP)
Sterlite Tech Q4 standalone net profit at Rs 43.8 cr
Bharat Electronics Q4 net profit at Rs 559 cr
SEZs were main source of Q4 income: Mahindra Lifespace
ICICI Bank Q4 PAT seen down 27% at Rs 841 cr
Above Rs 770, Bharti Airtel can touch Rs 850: M Thacker
Micro Technologies bags $ 5 mn biz from FN Systems

Friday, April 24, 2009

After the Bell

Mkts close strong led by telecom, cap goods, auto, banks.The Sensex today opened up 15 points at 11,149. Thereafter it slipped into the red and touched a low of 11,070.
Thereafter the index to rebounded into the positive zone. Agressive buying towards the end helped the index touch a high of 11,362.
Top gainers on the Sensex were M&M at Rs 470.25 up 6.16%, Jaiprakash Asso at Rs 124.85 up 5.27%, Grasim at Rs 1,795 up 5.22%, Bharti Airtel at Rs 742 up 4.67% and Tata Power at Rs 885 up 3.45%.
However, top losers on the Sensex were Maruti Suzuki at Rs 782. down 2.21%, Ranbaxy Labs at Rs 176.40 down 2.05%, Wipro at Rs 306.60 down 2.03% and Tata Steel at Rs 259.35 down 1.31%.
The Sensex finally ended (provisional) up 174 points up, at 11,309.
Satyam shareholders advised to wait till June 22
New H-1B law "discrimates" against Indian IT firms
Maruti Q4 net drops 18.5 pc, misses forecast
Oil hovers below $50 as eventual recovery weighed
Corporation Bank Q4 net up 26%, declares 80% dividend
Suzlon Energy among major gainers
Mahindra Lifespace Developers FY'09 net at Rs 65.54 cr
Q1 FY10 to be an excellent one: Binani Cement
See 13.5-14 mt of sugar production this year: Bajaj Hind
Idea quadruples its network capacity
Corporation Bank targets about 20% credit growth in FY10
Suffered forex losses of about Rs 12cr: Rain Commodities
IDFC Project Equity to invest 60% in road & power sector

Market Outlook 24th April 2009

The market may have flat to positive opening today. Nifty has supports at 3300- 3340 and resistances are at 3440-3500. Traders should buy on dips.
Nifty likely to witness range of 3500-3340: Bhambwani
Sensex can go up to 12300-12800: Hans Goetti
JK Tyres to invest Rs 270 cr in Mysore unit
GE Hitachi in talks with L&T for nuke plans
Crude at $49.22/bbl
GHCL says promoters didn’t sell any stake
US market end positive; ICICI Bank surge around 9.5%
Asian market mixed; Hang Seng up 61pts
Maharashtra Seamless Q4 net up 19% to Rs 64.63 cr
State Bank of Travancore Q4 net up 28.7 pc
Crude price fall hits RIL, Q4 net dips 1%

Retail re-entry: RIL plans to cover entire fuel value chain
Pyramid Saimira promoters, 228 others barred from market
RPower trebles net to Rs 244 cr
JK Tyre to invest Rs 270 crore in expanding capacity
LICHF posts 33% rise in net profit to Rs 158 crore
HDFC Bank Q4 net up 34% on high fee-based income
HDFC Bank Q4 net up 34% on high fee-based income
State Bank of Travancore Q4 net up 28.7 pc

Thursday, April 23, 2009

After the Bell

Nifty ends above 200 DMA led by IT, metal, auto, banks
BNP Paribas turns major stakeholder in Geojit
Reliance Infra FY09 results cons net profit at Rs 1353 cr
RPL Q4 net profit at Rs 84 crore
Zee News Q4 cons net profit at Rs 8.76 cr
RNRL FY09 cons net profit at Rs 71.5 cr
Tata Communications to offer Cisco's Telepresence Services
LIC Housing Finance Q4 net up 33%
Ashok Leyland shoots up smartly
Maruti Suzuki recovers sharply
Axis Bank minting money
Rolta India continues to slide
HDIL advances 6%

NIFTY FUTURE

BUY NIFTY ABOVE 3360..STRICT SL 3330 TARGET 3400-3410

Market Outlook 23rd April 2009

The market may have flat to negative opening today. Nifty has supports at 3250- 3300 and resistances are at 3400-3440. The market is expected to remain volatile.
Yes Bank Q4 net profit rises 24%
Fund Action witnessed in Jubilant Organsosys, Rolta
47 of 50 excluded F&O stocks end negative
HDFC Bank Q4 net seen up 30.54% at Rs 615 cr
Reliance Industrial Infra Q4 net profit at Rs 6.46 cr
Idea Q4 net profit seen up 2.6% to Rs 262.7 cr
Axis Bank to start search for two senior executives
Mahindra Finance Q4 PAT up by 43% at Rs 108cr
Satyam will recover its lost glory by Dec:
CLB ChiefCan Fin Homes net down 4.5%
Supreme Petrochem Q3 Net profit up by 462%
R-Power surges on Sasan funding
Everest Kanto acquires majority stake in CC&L
Era Infra registers revenues at Rs 952.58 cr; up by 52.40%

Reco: Accumulate Hero Honda, target of Rs 1209: P Lilladher
Hold Hero Honda, target of Rs 1192: KRChoksey

Wednesday, April 22, 2009

After the Bell

Most stocks excluded from F&O segment tumble..
Several stocks which are going to get excluded from futures and options segment have slipped in today’s trade. Stocks like UTV Software Communications, 3i Infotech, Balaji Telefilms, Gitanjali Gems and Gateway Distriparks were down 8-12%.
ISMT touched an intraday high of Rs 24.95 and an intraday low of Rs 21.75. At 2:45 pm, the share was quoting at Rs 24.10, up Rs 1.65, or 7.35%.
RIL in pact with 6 power producers for sale of KG D-6 gas
JSW Steel to invest Rs3,000 cr in India projects in FY10
Corporation Bank Q4 PAT seen up 7% at Rs 220 cr
Kotak puts BUY on Zensar Technologies
Reliance Comm to invite tender for FCCBs buyback
The firm intends to buy back the FCCBs by way of an invitation to the bondholders to tender their bonds for repurchase.“The buyback of FCCBs shall result in gains to the company to the extent of the discount on the repurchase of FCCBs,” the ADAG firm said, and further added that “debt on the balance of the company will be reduced to the extent of the FCCBs bought back.”
Oil rises towards $49 ahead of US inventory data
Piramal Health eyes acquisitions in US, Europe
IT sector to see strong revival in FY11: Azim Premji
ONGC to come out with IPO for its $2.5 bn plant
Gail plans pipeline from Andhra to MP
Adani Power to tap capital mkts, first issue in 15 months
Above Rs 220, expect further upswing in R Comm: Bose
Ispat adds 25 lakh shares in open interest

Market Outlook 22nd April

The market may have positive opening today. Nifty has supports at 3300- 3320 and resistances are at 3440-3490. Intraday dips should see buying support.

Stock News
Tata Consultancy Services expects to cut forex loss to Rs 120 cr
Wipro Q4 net profit up at Rs 910 cr
Fund Action witnessed in Alok Industries, GRUH Finance
Rolta India Q3 net surges on one-time gain
ICICI Bank cuts lending rates by 50 bps
Hero Honda says to maintain margins
Reliance Power completes financing for Sasan
Gitanjali Gems sees rev worth 65 bln rupees in FY10
MMTC says to import 10 tonnes gold in April
RIL to re-open its fuel retail outlets in next few days- BUY RIL
Buy Axis Bank, target of Rs 650: Emkay
Accumulate Axis Bank, target of Rs 550: Prabhudas Lilladher
Yes Bank Q4 PAT seen up 14% at Rs 74 cr
Zee Entertainment Q4 PAT seen down 11% at Rs 81.6 cr

NSE F&O update

The NSE on Tuesday announced the exclusion of 50 stocks from the F&O segment. Among the counters include 3i Infotech, Ballarpur Industries, Bata India, Edelweiss, Gateway Distriparks, Gitanjali Gems, Hindustan Oil Exploration, Jet Airways, MindTree, MRF, NIIT, NDTV, S. Kumar’s Nationwide, TVS Motor, UTV Software and Wockhardt. The NSE also announced fresh eligibility criteria for inclusion in F&O segment. The conditions are that the stock would be chosen from among the top 500 stocks in terms of average daily market capitalisation and average daily traded value in the previous six months on a rolling basis; the stock’s median quarter sigma order size (the average of the median buying and selling price) over the last six months should be not less than Rs 5 lakh; the market wide position limit (MWPL) in the stock should not be less than Rs 100 crore. For an existing F&O stock, the continued eligibility criteria is that market wide position limit in the stock should not be less than Rs 60 crore and stock’s median quarter-sigma order size over the last six months should be not less than Rs 2 lakh.
NATIONAL STOCK EXCHANGE OF INDIA LTD. FUTURES & OPTIONS SEGMENT CIRCULAR Circular No. NSE/F&O/030/2009 April 21, 2009 Download No: NSE/FAOP/12296 Dear Members, Exclusion of futures and options contracts in 50 securities Members are advised to note that based on the stock selection/exclusion criteria as prescribed by SEBI vide circular SEBI/DNPD/CIR-31/2006/ dated September 22, 2006 and NSE circular No NSE/F&O/029/2009 dated April 21, 2009 contracts for new expiry months in the following securities will not be available for trading on expiry of existing contract months.


Kindly click on the table to view it clearly..
However, the existing unexpired contracts for the month of and April, May and June 2009 would continue to be available for trading till their respective expiry and new strikes would also be introduced in these existing contract months.

This circular shall be effective from May 4, 2009.

For and on behalf of
National Stock Exchange of India Limited


Suprabhat Lala
Asst. Vice President

Tuesday, April 21, 2009

Market Outlook

Market cues:
Most global markets tumble around 3%
Monetary policy today, market divided on expectation of rate cut
FIIs net buy USD 158.7 million in equity on April 17
MFs net buy Rs 421.8 crore in equity on April 17
NSE F&O Open Int up by Rs 1,414 crore at Rs 83,623 crore
India VIX rises another 6.7% to 54.2
FIIs net buy Rs 348 crore in cash markets on April 20 (prov)
DIIs net buy Rs 109 crore in cash markets on April 20 (prov)
FIIs net sell Rs 835 crore in F&O
Fund Action witnessed in Bajaj Hind, Shiv Vani Oil
Other stocks and sectors in the news:
SEBI bars GHCL promoters, chairman, MD from dealing in stock market over false filing of promoter shareholding.
NSE bars further F&O positions in Alok Industries as 95% position limit is hit,
Unitech continues to be in curbJet likely to slash fleet size by 20%, co says tech adjustment ahead of lean season.
Indiabulls Real Estate sells Mumbai property to British Council for Rs 30 crore – (Deal struck as Rs 19000/sqft)
Power Grid plans second tranche of public offer to raise Rs 3000 crore by year end
Air India cuts fares by 70% in tier II routes despite 6.7% hike in ATF (Private airlines to face the heat as they recently announced hike in fares)
Cipla wins patent fight against US based Gilead Sciences on bird flu medicine in India
No ban on sugar stock futures
Welspun Gujarat to demerge it’s plate cum coil division into 100% subsidiary
Board Meets Today: Bharati Shipyard: to consider and approve issuance of convertible warrants
Bajaj Fin up on foray into MF biz
PowerGrid plans to raise Rs 3k cr via fresh issue
Oil slips below $47 on rising dollar, bleak economy
Tata Motors promoter pledges 30 lakh shares
Tata Tele launches GPS service
Markets may open negative and is expected to find support at lower levels.at supports are at 3250- 3300 and resistances are at 3400-3440. Some volatility and choppiness is also expected.

Saturday, April 18, 2009

The week ahead..


Forex losses likely to play spoilsport for TCS

After disappointing numbers from Infosys, analysts and investors are anxiously awaiting the quarter-end figures of the country’s second biggest IT exporter TCS,which will announce its results on Monday. Infosys and TCS numbers often reflect the state of the Indian IT sector. Since September ’08 quarter, forex losses of TCS have risen significantly compared to Infosys. This can be attributed to the difference in forex strategies of the two companies.

VIEW-Stay away from TCS in the short-term

PFC’s net profit up 32% in 4th quarter

State-owned Power Finance Corporation’s (PFC’s) has recorded an increase in its net profit by 12.3 per cent to touch Rs 1,355 crore for the fiscal 2008-09 as against Rs 1,207 crore during 2007-08.
Total income of the corporation rose to Rs 6,583 crore as against Rs 5,029 crore during 2007-08.

VIEW: PFC may touch 162-175 in the short term.

Airtel to launch DTH for cars

With the start of general elections as a source of revenue Bharti Airtel’s direct-to-home (DTH) arm is ready to launch its mobile DTH units for cars.
The company that launched its DTH operations in October last year is in talks with various automobile companies to install their mobile DTH units.

VIEW: BUY Bharti for a target of 620.

Top-level churn at ICICI subsidiaries

Renuka Ramnath quits ICICI Venture; insurance arms may get new heads.The stage is set for a top-deck reshuffle at ICICI Bank subsidiaries, with ICICI Venture (I-Venture) Managing Director and CEO Renuka Ramnath putting in her papers after working at the group for over 20 years.

ICICI Prudential Life Insurance Managing Director and CEO Shikha Sharma is also said to be expected to move to Axis Bank, which is scouting for a successor for P J Nayak, whose term ends in July. The reshuffle is also expected to see ICICI Lombard General Insurance Managing Director and CEO Sandeep Bakshi getting a berth on the bank’s board as deputy managing director.ICICI Prudential Executive Director Bhargava Dasgupta is seen as the frontrunner to replace Bakshi.
When contacted, an ICICI Bank spokesperson said, “We do not comment on speculation.”

VIEW:- SELL ICICI BANK

BEML sets up assembly unit in Brazil

BEML Limited, the mini-Ratna PSU under the defence ministry and maker of construction and mining equipment, has set up an assembly unit, BEML Brasil Industrial Ltda, at Rio de Janeiro in Brazil. The company will assemble its products relating to mining and construction, rail and metro, and defence segments at this unit for its customers in and around Brazil.

Infosys to freeze April wage hike, promotions

The impact of the global meltdown has forced India’s second largest IT bellwether Infosys Technologies to freeze wage hikes and hiring in new fiscal 2009-10.The hike, usually given during April every year, is not being given this year, Infosys head of HR, education and research T V Mohandas Pai said here while announcing its Q4 results. “This is perhaps for the second time we are not giving hikes and promotions. We have decided not to give hikes or promotions now. However, we will examine it again later if things improve.”


Infy looking at transfering 25% workforce to BPO arm
The IT space has taken it on the chin. Infosys is gearing up for tougher times. CNBC-TV18 learns from sources that the company is offering about 25% of its entire workforce who are on the bench the option of joining its BPO arm. Wipro, which tried this same move earlier, faced a huge backlash.

Tata Motors nets Rs 15 crore on 500,000 Nano forms

Within 15 days of opening the registration process for Nano, its Rs 1 lakh car, Tata Motors has sold nearly 500,000 application forms, raking in Rs 15 crore (at Rs 300 each). Distributors associated with the Nano bookings said most of the forms were likely to translate into bookings.


VIEW: Buy TATA MOTORS with a medium term View.It is currently trading below its book value.

DLF to exit from four IT/ITeS SEZs

A senior company official said the four SEZs that the company want to surrender are located at Bhubaneshwar, Gandhinagar, Kolkata and Sonepat (Haryana).

VIEW:- Sell DLF

HCL Info climbs 3.4% on Nokia JV

HCL Infosystems rose 3.40 per cent to Rs 88.15 on reports that its subsidiary HCL Infocomm has entered into a joint venture with Nokia to set up retail outlets.

No more land purchase: Unitech

Unitech Ltd, the country’s second-biggest real estate developer, has assured investors it won’t buy more land in the near future to expand its business.


VIEW:-Sell Unitech.



RIL to open closed fuel stations soon


Reliance Industries, which surrendered only-for-export status for one of its two refineries to enable domestic fuel sales, is set to start reopening its shut petrol pumps in next few days.“Now that Reliance can sell fuel from its old refinery locally, petrol pumps will start reopening. All preparatory work is in progress and the first pump in Gujarat may start retailing petrol and diesel as early as Saturday,” an industry source said.

VIEW:BUY RIL.

MArket View- the uptrend is likely to continue.Markets currently have come to a very important juncture, which is the 200 day moving average.It is just the volatility, which might just mix it up a little bit for the traders. There is a little bit of hesitation, which is creeping in above that 3,500 mark for the Nifty.

Friday, April 17, 2009

GOLD DEMAND MAY RISE DURING AKSHAYA TRITIYA:WGC

India may see hectic Gold buying activities during Akshaya Tritiya,an auspicious day for buying precious metals,even as prices of gold are projected to further appreciate in the coming months,the World Gold Council said on Friday,Indian consumers could see further rise of around 24 per cent in gold prices depending on the rupee-dollar movement in the coming months,it said.





"It would be fair to say that this (Akshaya Tritiya) is the most favourable time to buy gold," it said in a statement. At present, gold prices are ruling at Rs 14,300 per 10 gram in the domestic market. "We are confident that on Akshaya Tritiya, consumers will make significant gold purchases as gold is an irreplaceable part of Indian culture and a unique monetary asset," said World Gold Council (WGC), Indian Subcontinent, Managing Director Ajay Mitra. Akshaya Tritiya, which falls on April 27, is considered auspicious for buying gold and silver. Quoting a recent GFMS gold survey, the WGC said gold could easily rebound to the 1,000 dollar per ounce mark, with an added expectation of crossing the 1,100 dollar per ounce barrier in the coming months. Mitra said, "While the current economic conditions may have dwindled returns from other forms of investment, Indian housewives who have been passionate gold investors are still reaping high returns". According to the WGD data, gold has provided an annual average return of 26 per cent over the past decade. Returns from gold during the first quarter of 2009 stood at 17 per cent, he said. "With Akshaya Tritiya round the corner, this positive trend further encourages housewives to make gold purchase at this opportune time in the year," WGC said. During the first quarter of 2009, the average price of gold remained at Rs 14,180 per 10 gram, compared with Rs 12,147 per 10 gram in a year-ago period, it added.

OIL Prices-What next???


It took only 5 months for the price of oil to plummet from $150 to under $40 in the second part of the year. Meanwhile oil consumption did not even decrease 10%, so what is the real cause of this collapse you may ask?Hedge funds. Let me explain.


During the first part of 2008, Western economies were already slowing down noticeably and hedge funds gradually pulled trillions of dollars out of the market and parked them in energy ETFs. At the time Chindia's insatiable thirst for oil and the "decoupling" of east/west economies had many believe commodities were a "sure thing", a sound enough tangible insurance to protect overinflated assets scavenged from made-up bubbles. On top of that, by using leverage, profits were multiplied as oil went up, not a bad deal in a recession.But when the banking industry collapsed, hedge funds had to raise cash by "deleveraging", liquidating their leveraged energy ETF positions sending the price of oil tumbling. Anecdotally shorting of banking ETFs was suspended by the US Securities Commission during that time but not shorting of energy prices, and the leverage mania soon found an escape route in utrashort oil ETFs, compounding the speed of this downward spiral. By December 2008 the oil price had collapsed 75% and frankly, who would complain about cheap gas these days?As we enter 2009 the oil landscape has reversed dramatically from a year ago. The price of oil is lower than production costs and new exploration projects are being cancelled. China flush with cash is currently buying all the oil it can get its hands on to pump into its strategic reserves. Once arrogant OPEC countries are willing to sell oil at any price to fund government programs and prevent political instability.One constant however is the depletion of major oil fields, worse than predicted at 9.1% year over year as we close 2008. It's a matter of when not if the economy recovers and when it does, expect a strong bounce back in the price of oil.

-by Steve Austin.



Whats there in store for us??

Avoid investing in stocks of Oil marketing companies.

Buy stocks like CAirn India-CMP of CAIRNINDIA is 190.4 at 13:11 pm friday,17th April 2009.

Thursday, April 16, 2009

Options strategy - By my friend DHARMESH SHAH

THIS STRATEGY IS FOR THE MAY SERIES..





KINDLY CLICK ON THE PICTURE TO VIEW IT CLEARLY.

The strategy is to buy 1 DEEP ITM call and sell 2 ITM

Profit area is 3040-3760

Loss area is below 3040 and is limited to Rs.40

Lower BEP 3040

Higher BEP 3760

Margin Required is Rs-44000-48000

Tuesday, April 14, 2009

OIL or GOLD???

Investor Jim Rogers said he prefers oil over gold as he believes the International Monetary Fund will sell its reserves following the recent rally in the precious metal.


“The IMF is trying to sell its gold,” Rogers, chairman of Singapore-based Rogers Holdings, said in an interview.
“The IMF is one of the largest holders of gold so you’ve got this huge supply overhang. Whether they sell it or not, the world is expecting them to sell it.”

Monday, April 13, 2009

Reality Behind Real Estate Co's

Unitech has large number of projects where work hasn’t even started and there is no talk of how they are going to build those things. So just saying I have arranged the money, and I am going to do a little QIP and I am going to borrow some money and do it, doesn’t call for restating. Effectively, if one looks at the balance sheet, companies like Unitech is bankrupt, in all financial terms the company is bankrupt and should have been wound up long back.”
“DLF is still little better because of its assets. It sold its assets to its group company at a profit, booked the profit, did the IPO - the group company cannot pay the money back, so what will one do? - just fold back the group company- could anyone give me basis of this accounting?- I Sold at Rs 5,000 crore the company cannot raise the money, bring it back at Rs 5,000 crore and I booked a profit at Rs 2,000 crore.”
If we look at both these companies from a financial sense, there is no reason to invest in these companies; we don’t understand the turnaround story. It is true that things are little better in the market but are those companies solvent- I guess the answer to that is no.”

CONCLUSION: The Real estate sector is definitely not a buy and we are not sure where the rally is coming from.Look at the debt of these companies.We are ignoring the 100's of crores of money they have taken from people for the projects, for which the construction has not started yet.And these companies has to build the buildings for which they have been sold for.

EXIT FROM REAL ESTATE COUNTERS>>>

CMP Of DLF 225.75

CMP of UNITECH 41.4 at 12.47 pm 13th april 2009.

Profit booking at higher levels likely; support seen at 3300-3275

Given the exceptional gains in the past few weeks, Indian markets are currently trading in an overbought zone and are due for some Profit Booking.The first sign of profit booking was seen on last Thursday where stock futures shed nearly 1.02 crore shares in open interest. Nifty is likely to see strong support around 3200-3300 levels.
Marketmen are of the view that the quarterly earnings figures and the revenue guidance of IT bellwether Infosys would determine the direction of the market in the second half of this week, which has gained substantially in the past five weeks.
Volatility is likely to heighten, possibly triggering some panic among investors, who are in a dilemma whether to book profits now or hang on till any reversal.
And FInally-The bids received by the board for Satyam are likely to be between Rs 55-65 per share reports CNBC-TV18 quoting NW18 sources

CONCLUSION: Traders and investors can book profits at the current level and wait for 3200-3150 levels to enter into markets again.

Saturday, April 11, 2009

Fourth Quarter Results fore-cast.

As the fourth quarter result season kicks off amid a Global Economic Recession let us focus on the 30 Sensex companies to sense what is there in store for us.
For the first time since 1998, when India Inc started declaring quarterly results, most of the sensex companies are poised to post a decline in sales as well as net profits in the fourth quarter.As many as 16 Sensex companies are expected to record a fall in their net profits in the fourth quarter, compared to 14 in the third quarter.The worst is likely to come from sector leaders like Ranbaxy and TATA STEEl.Ranbaxy likely to suffer MTM losses.Tata Steel expected to post a consolidated netloss of over 900 crores(This includes CORUS).

Among others, DLF, Grasim, Hindalco, ICICI Bank, Maruti Suzuki, Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M), Sterlite Industries and Tata Motors could see a significant decline in net profits, while the fall in net for Reliance Industries (RIL), Reliance Communications (RCom) and Wipro could be modest.
The Sensex companies had reported an 11 per cent drop in their net profits despite a single-digit revenue growth in the third quarter. However, in the first two quarters, these companies had recorded a significant growth in their revenues and had also reported growth in net profits.
Most corporate analysts expect ACC, Bharti Airtel, Bharat Heavy Electricals (BHEL), HDFC Bank, Hindustan Unilever, Infosys Technologies, NTPC, ONGC and Tata Power to show a strong net profit growth of over 20 per cent in the fourth quarter.A growth in net sales is expected to come from ACC, Bharti Airtel, Bhel, HDFC Bank, Infosys Technologies, Jaiprakash Associates, Larsen & Toubro (L&T), Maruti Suzuki, Reliance Infra, TCS and Wipro. These firms are likely to show a strong 20 per cent-plus growth.
But DLF, Hindalco, ICICI Bank, M&M, RIL, Sterlite Industries and Tata Motors are likely to show decline in sales.

Conclusion: Morethan half of them are going to report a decline in Net Profit.
Offload stocks like ICICI BANK,M&M ,STERLITE INDUSTRIES,TATA MOTORS,RANBAXY,TATA STEEL.,DLF,Grasim,Maruti Suzuki and Hindalco from your portfolio.

And you can hold stocks like ACC, Bharti Airtel, Bharat Heavy Electricals (BHEL), HDFC Bank, Hindustan Unilever, Infosys Technologies, NTPC, ONGC and Tata Power.Interstingly REliance infra is expected to show a growth in Net sales.


Trade cautiously.Trade with strict Stop Loss.