Wednesday, February 22, 2012

Near term market view.

There is no cheer for the Greek bailout stuff.Most analysts expected a cheer.Now hear this,"A rally would end when a good news for the rally doesn't warrant a move in the rally's direction." Stay cautious with ur longs with a trailing SL.(A strict trailing SL) :) 

Wednesday, February 8, 2012

Trade what you see.

From the lows of around 4500 in the month of December we had hit 5400 yesterday.Roughly a 20% gain.It was a clear indication that the markets will move up when the RBI announced a CRR cut.We were trading around 5050 in Nifty futures when the CRR cut was announced.The 200 DMA was around 5195 on the spot and we comfortably crossed that hurdle and now currently trading around 5400 levels.Around 5200 levels traders were talking about the over-bought situation in the front line stocks and the index.Indices were in no mood for a pause.Today, Nikkei hits 3 month highs as the Auto giant Toyota raised the profit outlook and the strengthening of Yen boosted the sentiment.It is few notches away from hitting the 9000 mark.

  Today we may trade above 5400 and there is a good chance that we may close above that level if there are no negative surprises from the EU.

  Reliance Industries is trading near the maximum Buy back price(870). Avoid buying near those levels.And yesterday, Government rejected the price revision proposal submitted by Reliance on the KG-D6 gas.It added that $4.2 per mmBtu price was agreed upon by the company and furthermore the Supreme court said the company should proceed with the price which was being agreed upon.

 The GDP data released yesterday by the CSO(Central Statistics Office) showed that the economy to grow by 6.9% in the year 2011-12 which was lower than the projected 7-7.5% by the policy makers.

  FII remain buyers in the Indian Bourses and markets are in no mood to correct in the near term.Trade with a strict stop loss.A rally would end when a good news for the rally doesn't warrant a move in the rally's direction.Even a bad news is not affecting this rally.Markets are looking out for reasons to cheer day in and day out.Trade what you see and use trailing stop losses for your longs and strict stop losses for your shorts.

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Thursday, February 2, 2012

200 DMA- Here we come.

Finally Nifty Spot managed to close well above the 200 DMA.With better auto sales for the month of January and HSBC January PMI at 57.5 and the European rally helped our indices to scale new highs for the year.Reliance Ind. closed up by 2% as the buy back program kick started yesterday.Today is an important day as the Supreme court today decides whether the 2G licenses allotted during the tenure of the previous telecom minister should be cancelled on account of the irregularities in awarding the same.The Supreme court to pronounce its verdict on the case filed by Dr.Swamy to probe the present Home Minister's role in the 2G licenses issue during his tenure as the Finance Minister when the licenses were issued.


  Last time when the issue propped up the indices tanked for the day.Keep an eye on the same.SGX Nifty futures indicate that Nifty should be opening above the 5300 mark for the day.Avoid fresh positions till the verdict is out.Once the verdict is out,you can initiate long/short positions depending on the outcome.

  SEBI announced new norms yesterday on the IPP ( Institutional Placement Program) to help promoters to offload their stake.It is a welcome move as the Government is struggling to raise funds for the share sale program in the PSU stocks.

 All the Asian indices are trading in the positive territory for the day.French bond auction to take the center stage after the European open.France plans to sell around 6.5-8 Billion Euros worth of longer tenure bonds for the day.If they manage to sell at lower yields, the markets may move up further.

 Stay cautious ahead of the Supreme Court verdict.
Apologies for not writing in the past few days as I was tied up with a family function.Hope everyone booked profits in the OnMobile short-Medium term call given around 74.8. It made a high around 81 last Friday(8% move from the Buy levels).
 
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