Algorithms,HFTs and Flash crashes

Algorithm is a step by step process which involves a formula or a set of rules to solve a problem.In day to day life one or the other household equipments we have, operate on an algorithm.Take for example- A Washing Machine, which has got a set of rules for washing,rinsing and drying.The machine operates on this algorithm and in the event of any anomaly, the machine informs us through a beep sound.It cannot auto correct the mistakes or the anomaly and hence it doesn't fall under machines with artificial intelligence.It needs human intervention to work normally.Same is the case with many algorithmic trading programs which are being used by the FIIs and investment bankers or some technocrat traders.Algorithm doesn't have any intelligence on its own.It does what exactly it is programmed to do.Yes, you heard it right.It is similar to my office boy.You ask him to buy a soft drink and if the store doesn't have it, he will come back saying that it is not there.He will not call you to ask, whether he can buy the other available brand at the store.And you have to send him again.On the other hand the HFT- High frequency trading uses lot of algorithms to execute different orders in a trading day.It executes even thousand orders a day and mostly the trade position is held for few minutes to few hours.By the end of the day there are no trading positions left.Every trader has a few tricks up his sleeves in trading.But the limitation is the process of executing it lightening fast before the market could react.There is were HFT kick in as they have less than a micro second execution time.The organizations which use HFT reduce the volatility of a particular script by creating a market for the particular script.In other words, they act like market makers thus reducing the volatility and bid-ask spreads. And what happened to Nifty on Friday is like a flash crash.It happened within seconds.Infosys dropped around 18-19% during the time and recovered before the markets were closed.Some of my friends attributed this to the error in order punching in both the INFY and the Nifty futures.This lead to the fall as a huge order got executed (a sell order) without the price being mentioned and it got traded to all the available buy orders.This happened within seconds and the markets recovered rapidly.In my opinion it should be because of a punching error and suddenly the algorithms and HFT systems started executing their orders as the prices started dropping and this resulted in the flash crash.In May 2010, DOW Jones fell about 1000 points within seconds and recovered most of the fall before the end of the day.This was attributed to the error in order punching and resulted in a flash crash as the HFT and algorithm picked the signal of the sudden fall and started executing the orders.This all happens within micro-seconds leaving no space for human intervention.No matter what system you use for trading, be it technical analysis or Macro-economics or you trade on the calls given to you by a friend who claims to be an analyst,kindly have a strict stop loss in place.Don't have the stop loss order in your mind.Have it punched in into the trading system.The advantage of doing so is, you can avoid emotions while the prices are nearing your stop losses and less human intervention is possible on days where we see a flash crash.(To receive the Daily Market Report and Breaking news during market hours, in your inbox, type your email id in the box(Subscribe to Broker King) below the World Map in the blog and click Subscribe).www.brokerking.blogspot.comFor your comments and suggestions Kindly visit our FB page, http://www.facebook.com/pages/Broker-King/115212095212768

SGX Nifty

SGX Nifty trades  at 5292.5  at 0710 hours IST

Near term market view.

There is no cheer for the Greek bailout stuff.Most analysts expected a cheer.Now hear this,"A rally would end when a good news for the rally doesn't warrant a move in the rally's direction." Stay cautious with ur longs with a trailing SL.(A strict trailing SL) :) 

Trade what you see.

From the lows of around 4500 in the month of December we had hit 5400 yesterday.Roughly a 20% gain.It was a clear indication that the markets will move up when the RBI announced a CRR cut.We were trading around 5050 in Nifty futures when the CRR cut was announced.The 200 DMA was around 5195 on the spot and we comfortably crossed that hurdle and now currently trading around 5400 levels.Around 5200 levels traders were talking about the over-bought situation in the front line stocks and the index.Indices were in no mood for a pause.Today, Nikkei hits 3 month highs as the Auto giant Toyota raised the profit outlook and the strengthening of Yen boosted the sentiment.It is few notches away from hitting the 9000 mark.

  Today we may trade above 5400 and there is a good chance that we may close above that level if there are no negative surprises from the EU.

  Reliance Industries is trading near the maximum Buy back price(870). Avoid buying near those levels.And yesterday, Government rejected the price revision proposal submitted by Reliance on the KG-D6 gas.It added that $4.2 per mmBtu price was agreed upon by the company and furthermore the Supreme court said the company should proceed with the price which was being agreed upon.

 The GDP data released yesterday by the CSO(Central Statistics Office) showed that the economy to grow by 6.9% in the year 2011-12 which was lower than the projected 7-7.5% by the policy makers.

  FII remain buyers in the Indian Bourses and markets are in no mood to correct in the near term.Trade with a strict stop loss.A rally would end when a good news for the rally doesn't warrant a move in the rally's direction.Even a bad news is not affecting this rally.Markets are looking out for reasons to cheer day in and day out.Trade what you see and use trailing stop losses for your longs and strict stop losses for your shorts.

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200 DMA- Here we come.

Finally Nifty Spot managed to close well above the 200 DMA.With better auto sales for the month of January and HSBC January PMI at 57.5 and the European rally helped our indices to scale new highs for the year.Reliance Ind. closed up by 2% as the buy back program kick started yesterday.Today is an important day as the Supreme court today decides whether the 2G licenses allotted during the tenure of the previous telecom minister should be cancelled on account of the irregularities in awarding the same.The Supreme court to pronounce its verdict on the case filed by Dr.Swamy to probe the present Home Minister's role in the 2G licenses issue during his tenure as the Finance Minister when the licenses were issued.

  Last time when the issue propped up the indices tanked for the day.Keep an eye on the same.SGX Nifty futures indicate that Nifty should be opening above the 5300 mark for the day.Avoid fresh positions till the verdict is out.Once the verdict is out,you can initiate long/short positions depending on the outcome.

  SEBI announced new norms yesterday on the IPP ( Institutional Placement Program) to help promoters to offload their stake.It is a welcome move as the Government is struggling to raise funds for the share sale program in the PSU stocks.

 All the Asian indices are trading in the positive territory for the day.French bond auction to take the center stage after the European open.France plans to sell around 6.5-8 Billion Euros worth of longer tenure bonds for the day.If they manage to sell at lower yields, the markets may move up further.

 Stay cautious ahead of the Supreme Court verdict.

Apologies for not writing in the past few days as I was tied up with a family function.Hope everyone booked profits in the OnMobile short-Medium term call given around 74.8. It made a high around 81 last Friday(8% move from the Buy levels).

 

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Nifty-short term

Europe is trading positive for the day.Dow Futures are trading positive.Nifty facing resistance around 5200, which happens to be the 200 DMA.Every bounce to 200 DMA can be shorted with the 200 DMA as a SL on a closing basis.

Bidding adieu to Jan series.

        The January series comes to an end today after a remarkable journey.Sensex had hit 17000 mark yesterday and Nifty managed to close above 5100 for the day.RBI announced a CRR cut by 50 basis points or half a percent in its policy meet.RBI also lowered the GDP forecast to 7% from the earlier 7.6%. Nifty and Bank nifty surged to make new highs for the day and heavy weights like SBI and L&T closed up by 5% for the day. The much awaited Reliance Ind. buy-back will be open from Feb 1st and will last till Jan 19th 2013.The maximum price for buy-back is set at Rs.870. In the year 2011, Reliance underperformed the index and was down by 35%. Friday after market hours the company announced its results for the third quarter and posted a drop in earnings.The buy-back is widely seen as a cover up for the bad results.

       Rupee today strengthened and closed at 50.07/08 to the US Dollar and in intra-day made a high of 49.925 against the Dollar.

        In the International front, data released yesterday in UK showed that the total public sector debt rose to a record high and crossed 1 trillion pound mark which is around 65% of UK's GDP. The debt plan of Greece reached nowhere yesterday and it triggered a sell-off in European markets.Greece has got more debt than it can actually pay.Adding fuel to the fire , S&P said it may likely declare ratings of Greece to, "Selective default".

        The European indices edged lower for the day and the US indices ended flat to negative.

      IMF said yesterday that the European debt crisis could send the world economy into recession and added that the epicenter of the damage is Europe but the rest of the world is increasingly affected.

       I expect our markets to be volatile ahead of expiry with a negative bias.Weak earnings from Europe can trigger a sell-off in the European markets in the near term.Nifty rallied 13% from the low it made on December 20th. I would advise caution at higher levels and would advise investors to book profits in banking and realty stocks.PSU banks' earnings to set the tone for Banking index in the near future,Buying index puts in Feb series is advisable. 

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Indian Markets-The week ahead

It was high drama on Friday as the indices were moving in a tight range in the first half and then started edging lower in the second half.Wipro announced better than expected earnings and was trading higher.Bajaj Auto and Hero moto corp extended the rally on Friday after posting a good set of numbers.Around 3 PM markets edged lower and made new lows for the day.It was around this time Axis Bank announced its Q3 results and the stock started moving up.HDFC and HDFC Bank which was trending lower for the day erased all the losses and started moving up after the Axis Bank announced a good set of numbers.Indices spurted suddenly around this time and Reliance which was expected to announce results after market hours started moving up too.Both the Sensex and Nifty scaled new highs in the last 30 minutes of trade and closed on a positive note for the week.
  After market hours Reliance Industries announced the results and the profits fell for the first time in two years.And Analysts felt that the shares buy back announced by the company is to cover up the bad results.The refining margin fell to 6.8$ per barrel compared to 10.1$ per barrel in the previous quarter.The Maximum Buy back price is fixed at Rs 870 per share which is at 10% premium to the Friday's closing price.It would be interesting to note how the share prices react today when the markets open.In my opinion, I expect the stock prices to open lower on account of the drop in profits.
  The most awaited judgement on Vodafone was out on Friday.And Vodafone won the case against the IT Department.The Apex court asked the IT department to refund Rs.2500 crores to the company with a 4% interest rate.This landmark judgement is set to pave the way for the company which is planning for an Indian IPO.Vodafone uses OnMobile's Value added services like speech recognition,ring back tones in its own network and its partner networks across its worldwide operations.OnMobile is an Infosys seeded company and provides speech-enabled services in various Indian and international languages.I would advise a short-medium term Buy on OnMobile Global Limited around the Friday's closing price(74.60).
 Most of the Asian markets are closed in this week on account of Lunar New year(Refer to my Friday's article for details). In India, it is a truncated trading week as we celebrate Republic day on Thursday.The FNO expiry for the January series is on Wednesday.Inflation for the week ended 14th January to be announced on Friday, the 27th as Thursday the 26th is a holiday on account of Republic Day.The first policy meet of RBI for the year 2012 will happen on Tuesday the 24th.

Disclosure- I do not hold any of the stocks discussed in the article.

Bulls give high five to 5K mark.

Bulls reclaimed the 5000 mark on Nifty yesterday as the Asian indices rallied for the day.Better Q3 earnings of companies like HDFC Bank, Hero Moto Corp.,Bajaj Auto helped the index to close above the 5000 mark for the day.Rupee supported the sentiment and closed at 50.25 against the US Dollar.Lot of big events are unfolding in the days to come.Today is a big day with the index heavy weight Reliance announcing its Q3 results after market hours.Reliance may announce share buy back and the stock rallied on Wednesday on account of this and it was up by around three fourth of a percentage yesterday.On the negative side, in December Nomura had cut the Reliance rating to ,"Neutral", from, "Buy" and last week Morgan Stanley had cut the target price of Reliance to Rs.650 per share.As the refining margins are edging lower added with a slump in output from KG basin, the company may post a decline in earnings.

  All eyes are set on the RBI's first policy meet for the year 2012 scheduled on Tuesday,next week.And the SBI chairman said last week that he is not expecting a CRR cut in this policy meet.Though the food inflation is falling but the manufactured products inflation came at 7.42% for December 2011 compared to 5.39% a year ago I personally feel RBI would adapt a wait and watch stance.

 France and Spain Successfully auctioned medium to long term bonds yesterday at a lesser yield than the previous auctions.This was the first auction of medium to long term bonds after S&P had downgraded.European markets rallied and the CAC closed up by almost 2% for the day.

 In the USA,initial jobless claims fell to 352,000 beating the analyst's expectation and the consumer price index was unchanged.And the US housing starts fell more than the forecast to -4.1% in December compared to 9.1% in November.Dow Jones initially edged lower but picked up soon and closed on a higher note for the day.

I expect Nifty to open positive tracking the Asian indices.Results of Wipro and Rupee's movement to decide the direction for IT stocks.Reliance Industries will be volatile for the day with a negative bias.Banking and other rate sensitive stocks will be volatile ahead of the RBI's policy meet.Stay cautious in the second half of the day as Reliance will be announcing results after the market hours.Avoid carrying leveraged positions for Monday.

Chinese Markets will be closed through out next week on account of Chinese New Year. Hong Kong markets are closed till Wednesday.Malaysian and South Korean markets are closed till Tuesday.

Disclosure- I do not hold any of the stocks discussed in the article.

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Bulls are back with a Vengeance

Bulls are back with a vengeance in 2012.Let me back this claim with some data.Nifty future is up by 7.4% * since the last trading day of 2011.Rupee continues its strength and finally ended at 50.73 yesterday.Government's move to contain the fiscal deficit by hiking the import duty on gold and silver boosted the sentiment for rupee.As the bulls were looking out for a reason to cheer,Chinese data came in handy.Q4 GDP of China came at 8.9% which was higher than the consensus expectation.Industrial production and retail sales climbed 12.8% and 18.1% respectively compared to the same period a year ago.
  Reliance rallied for the day and ended up by nearly 4% which fueled the rally in the index.Heard from sources that the company may ask the Government to refund its investments if it is forced to give up any portion of the KG-D6 block.Maruti sky rocketed again yesterday as the company had announced price hikes in all its model except Swift DZire.For more information related to the reason for not hiking the prices of Swift DZire, refer to my previous day's article. Metal stocks were star performers as the Chinese data was encouraging.But analysts are pointing out that the lower steel output of China and the lower demand from Europe due to the crisis are the reasons for the fall in BDI(Baltic Dry Index).BDI had fallen down by 50% and was down for the past 19 consecutive days and is below the 1000 mark.It is now near Jan 2009 lows.
  Yesterday, Telecom Disputes Settlement Appellate Tribunal extended the stay on telecom department's ban on 3G roaming.The tribunal would resume hearing on the appeal by the mobile operators on February 2nd if they decide that they have the jurisdiction.
  European and the US markets ended in green as the Chinese data, successful Spanish bond auction(as the borrowing costs fell), and the US manufacturing data boosted the sentiment.US manufacturing rose to a 9 month high in the month of January.It came at 13.48% compared to 8.19% in December and was much higher than the consensus expectation.

 I expect Nifty to open flat for the day.Though some of my trader friends to whom I spoke with are of the view that TCS would rally for the day,I expect it to trend lower.(Disclaimer- Neither me nor my friends to whom I spoke with  have position in TCS).
  The magical 5000 mark is just a few yards away in Nifty.Will the bulls take that out with ease or lose steam and say the grapes are sour? Fingers crossed.



* Closing price on December 30th 2011 for Nifty futures was 4634.40.Yesterday Nifty futures closed at 4977.00

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Nifty bounces from lows on CRR cut optimism.

Yesterday Nifty opened lower reacting to the S&P downgrade of EU nations.Nifty futures had hit a low of 4,835.25 in the morning session and it was seen trading off the lows after the announcement of inflation data for the month of December.It had hit a high of 4,899.70 in the noon session as market participants expected some kind of monetary easing from the RBI in its first policy meet of the year 2012 on Jan 24th. WPI inflation for the month of December 2011 came at 7.47% which is considerably lesser than the 9.11% for the same period a year ago.
    Index heavy weights INFY and TCS were up by around 2% as TCS is set to announce its quarterly results today.SBI was up by around 3% as the Bank's chairman confirmed yesterday that the Government is set to infuse Rs.6000-8000 crores into the bank by March 31st and the infusion will be done through preferential allotment of equity by the bank to the Government.In another news, SBI is expected to raise the interest on its car loans by half a percent from today.
    Maruti was the star performer among the Nifty stocks and was up by around 5% for the day.Maruti is set to launch the new version of Swift DZire by early February.The new car to have length lesser than 4 meters.The present model is 4.16 meters in length and it has an excise duty of 22%. The new model with lesser than 4 meters length falls into small car category and has just 10% excise duty.
    Reliance Industries extended its fall for the day and was down by more than 2% for the day.Last week Morgan Stanley downgraded Reliance Ind. to under-perform with a downward target price of 650Rs per share.

  In the International front, EFSF loses its AAA rating and is now assigned AA+ with a negative outlook(In my Yesterday's article I have written that the Banks of the nations downgraded by S&P and the EFSF may be downgraded).Now expect the banks to be downgraded in the Euro zone.In a not so surprising move, Moody's retained AAA rating of France and said it is still reviewing the stable outlook assigned to France.If you remember,in August when US was downgraded by S&P ,Moody's and Fitch maintained the AAA rating of US.

  France successfully carried out the bond auction yesterday and the Moody's outlook helped the European indices to edge higher for the day.

Asian Markets are trading higher for the day and today around 0730 hours IST, China announces the GDP,Industrial production and retail sales data.

 Chinese data to set the tone for the Asian markets for the day.Expect Nifty to open positive tracking the Asian markets.Stay cautious at higher levels.I expect huge volatility in stocks like HCLTech and TCS as they are announcing the Q3 results today.

Valuenotes

Dear Readers,

                I would like to share a very happy news to you all.Hope you have heard of the site , www.valuenotes.com I started trading in 2005 by following the calls posted in the site by various analysts.And today, My article has been published in the site.As you were all aware that, I am developing an algorithm to trade Nifty future, I am extremely happy about the results of the same.And now my article in this site really made my day.It seems that God has finally decided to work with me.Thank you friends for your motivation.Without you, I would never have reached this level.And here is the link to my article.

http://www.valuenotes.com/Market-Outlook/SampPs-rate-cut-and-its-implications/174987/3/T

Market Report - S&P and Friday the 13th.

   Markets on Friday hit the lows of the day after the open and then started moving up around noon and hit fresh highs for the day.One reason being the short squeeze above the key resistance levels and the other reason being the successful EU bond auction on Thursday at a lesser yield.Friday was the 12th consecutive trading day wherein the Nifty hit intraday highs which was above the previous close.(Meaning-You could have made money by holding overnight long position around the closing price). Reliance Industries edged lower for the day.Finally the indices lost the gains in the last hour of trade to end up by three fourth of a percentage.

 European markets were volatile as there were news about France losing the AAA and the EU indices closed lower for the day.After the EU markets shut shop, S&P announced the new credit ratings of 16 EU nations and France lost its AAA rating.If you remember,USA was downgraded on Friday 5th,August 2011.

Click on the image  for enlarged view.

This week we may see the banks of these nations downgraded as well.EFSF may be downgraded too.

France is set to auction 11 Billion USD worth of bonds today.Japanese indices are down by more than one and a half percentage in early morning trades.I expect our markets to open lower reacting to the S&P downgrade.Use strict stop losses for your positions and stay cautious.I expect the result season to be muted with earning downgrades and Forex losses.Inflation data for the month of December 2011 to be announced today and the results of TCS and HCL Tech to be announced tomorrow.

US markets are closed today on account of Martin Luther King Jr. Day.

Morgan Stanley on Reliance and OMCs.

REUTERS>>-MORGAN STANLEY DOWNGRADES INDIA'S RELIANCE INDUSTRIES <RELI.NS>  TO UNDERWEIGHT, CUTS TARGET PRICE TO 650 RUPEES FROM 921 RUPEES

09:37 13Jan12 RTRS-MORGAN STANLEY DOWNGRADES BPCL <BPCL.NS>, HPCL <HPCL.NS> ESSAR  OIL <ESRO.NS> TO UNDERWEIGHT

09:37 13Jan12 RTRS-MORGAN STANLEY RAISES PRICE TARGET FOR CAIRN INDIA <CAIL.NS> TO  413 RUPEES FROM 359 RUPEES

09:50 13Jan12 RTRS-Morgan Stanley downgrades Reliance to 'underweight'

    MUMBAI, Jan 13 (Reuters) - Morgan Stanley has downgraded India's Reliance Industries <RELI.NS> to 'underweight' from 'equalweight', saying it expects the energy major's gross refining margins, exploration and production volumes to fall.  

   The bank cut its price target for the company to 650 rupees from 921 rupees.  

   "We highlight that two of three Reliance's core divisions -- refining and petrochemicals -- face near-term headwinds," it said in a note.  

   "We are downgrading our industry view (on oil and gas) to cautious from attractive," it said.  

   Morgan Stanley also downgraded oil marketing companies Hindustan Petroleum Corp <HPCL.NS>, Bharat Petroleum Corp <BPCL.NS> and Essar Oil <ESRO.NS> to 'underweight' from 'equalweight'.

Market Report

Action packed yesterday ended down with huge volatility.INFY's muted guidance hammered the stock and the other IT companies.HDFC posted good results and the stock ended positive by more than a percentage.INFY was down by more than 8% and is currently trading below the 200 day moving average.Investors who would like to accumulate the IT Giant can wait for few days for the stock to settle down.

 IIP data for November came better than expected but it went unnoticed by the bulls as the index heavy weight INFY and RIL (both account for nearly 17% index weightage) were down.IIP for November is at 5.9% compared to negative 5.1%(Revised to negative 4.7%). Food inflation came a bit up at negative 2.9%(week ended December 31st)compared to negative 3.36 percent the week ended December 24th.Core inflation is  at 7.9% which lead to the fall in the indices as this may delay the RBI's rate cuts.

In the International front Spain sold 13 Billion $ worth of bonds yesterday(twice the sales target) as the yield was down.Italy sold bonds at  half the yield which it paid on December 12th auction.Most of the European indices ended in green.Fitch placed long-term ratings on Bank of Ireland's UK covered bond program and all bonds issued under it on credit watch negative.

In the USA, retail sales for December was flat compared to the month of November and the jobless claims rose after falling continuously for the past few weeks.But the indices edged higher on EU optimism.

 I expect our markets to open positive tracking the Asian peers.Stay cautious at higher levels.A move below day's low in the second half may accelerate the fall.

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Market Report- Infy,HDFC to kick start the Q3 Results season.

  As expected it was a flat day yesterday.The indices were seen moving between positive and negative zone in the first hour of trade and the index heavy weight RELIANCE was simultaneously hitting the highs and lows in the first hour of trade.INFY which edged up higher in the first hour of trade lost the steam and edged lower for the day so are the other IT companies.The reason could be the Rupee strengthening and a cautious view of the market participants ahead of the results of INFY today.Reliance edged up later to continue the upward move.

INFY , HDFC results, IIP data, inflation data for the month of December are to be announced for the day.IIP data for the month of November may come at a much higher levels compared to the negative data for the month of October.Inflation data for December would be much lesser than the November's data.As this is widely expected I don't see markets rallying for a good set of numbers.INFY results to set the tone for the results season ahead.

German bond sales attracted stronger demand as the GDP for year 2011 came at 3% and the deficit is just 1% of the GDP.Spanish Industrial production for November came at -7% YoY the previous one was -4% (Revised to -4.2%). European indices edged lower for the day.

Tension between Iran and the west are growing day by day and the assassination of Iranian nuclear scientist yesterday added fuel to the fire.I will write a separate article on the same to throw more light on the recent developments.

I expect our markets to be volatile with a negative bias ahead of the big events scheduled for the day.

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Market Report-Rupee strengthens

 Rupee strengthened again yesterday to close below the 52 mark as strong inflows of foreign funds continue into debt instruments.Indian Government finally allowed 100% FDI in single brand retail.This would help INR to strengthen further in the near term.Reliance and Bharti which were down on Monday were up by 4% and 3% respectively.Only 3 stocks ended in red in the Nifty 50 stocks.

Industrial Production data of France which came just before the EU open surprised positively and the EU indices rallied for the day.US markets ended up for the day too.

Indian IIP data and the inflation data to be released tomorrow.INFY and HDFC kick start the earning season tomorrow.
INFY's guidance could set the tone for the entire results season as it did happen in the Q1 Infy results.Rupee hedging could have played spoil sport in the earnings.HDFC posted a good set of numbers in Q2 and the loan growth was higher than the industry average.As the RBI went on a rate hike spree in the last quarter it would be interesting to watch the results of HDFC and it could set the tone for the entire banking sector.

Slowing economy and huge debt could land the EU nations into more trouble and nations like Italy and few other nations would be downgraded in this month, said Fitch ratings yesterday.Italy currently holds A+ rating and it was placed on Credit watch negative in the month of December along with nations like Spain, Belgium, the Irish Republic, Slovenia and Cyprus.

I expect markets to open flat to positive tracking the Asian peers and the second half may see some volatility ahead of the big day tomorrow.

Tata Photon WiFi hub for sale

Friend of mine who is moving abroad is selling his spranigly used(20 days) Tata Photon wifi hub.For details check,
http://www.tatadocomo.com/photon-3g-wifi-hub.aspx

  Its actual cost is 6K.He is selling for 5K.Interested people may buzz me.The deal can be arranged through ebay.

Market Report-Credit Suisse upgrades India to Neutral.

As the EU euphoria is settling down and the reality is dawning in EU, our markets gave up all its gains after the European markets opened.Index heavy weight RELIANCE extended its losses as the company announced a 3 week maintenance in its Jamnagar distillation facility.The European indices edged lower and the US markets ended flat.

More pressure for KFA as SBI,BOB and BOI terms KFA's loan as NPAs. KFA's market share fell to 5th position in November compared to the 3rd position in October.

M&M rallied yesterday as the company announced that it is investing 800 crores in Korean arm SsangYong.It fell by around 8% on Tuesday and Wednesday as BofA had cut its target price.

CLSA has upgraded Cairn India and BPCL and it had downgraded GAIL and Ranbaxy.

Credit Suisse says  India's valuations are cheap and upgrades India to Neutral from Under-weight.It added that a fall in headline inflation and fewer earning downgrades in December are the reasons to upgrade India.India is the fourth most under valued market in Asia.

In another surprise move RBI raised the FCCB limit to 750 Million Dollars from 500 Million Dollars.This would encourage more funds to flow into the nation.RBI's Dy.Governor said that the interest rates are unlikely to rise further.

In the International arena, Iran lawmakers discussed on Wednesday to devise a relevant plan by which the foreign warships crossing the Hormuz straits will have to obtain permission from Iran.This is clearly aimed at USA's warships as US operates two air bases in Kuwait , one in UAE ,one in Qatar and one in Oman.The Qatar and the Oman bases are the largest bases operated by US outside US.Oman's base is the only base outside of Hormuz strait and all the other above mentioned bases can be reached only by crossing the Hormuz strait.On Thursday the Saudi and the all the gulf states were put on war alert.As US is headed for elections this November,it would be interesting to watch how it will tackle this issue.

I expect our markets to open lower tracking the Asian peers and we may bounce back from lower levels.

 
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Market Report-EU euphoria settles down.

Yesterday it was a volatile session with a negative bias.Sensex had hit a high of 16004 after the European indices opened.As the European indices were flirting with the positive zone after opening,our indices slipped into red.All the divestment candidates of the Government rose after the new announcement by SEBI.

RIL had announced a planned maintenance for one of its crude distillation units at the Jamnagar SEZ for a period of 3 weeks.The stock edged lower for the day.

M&M continued its downward journey yesterday and it was down by more than 4%. Two days back BofA had cut the ratings to under-perform.
HeroMoto Corp unveiled 2 motor cycle models and 1 scooter model yesterday.After Honda's exit from the joint venture, this was the second launch.The first one was the much anticipated on-off roader, the Impulse.These launches are expected to strengthen its market share in the second largest 2 wheeler market.

ONGC board gives the nod to Rs 115 Cr Investment on Heera field redevelopment. And the board announced a Rs 6.25 per share interim dividend and the payment of the same shall start from Jan 10th.In another news ONGC had notified 2 prospective hydrocarbon discoveries.

April- December Tax figures were released yesterday.
 Income Tax Mop-up  Rs 1.26 Lk Cr up by 19%.
 Corporate Tax Mop-up at Rs 2.7 Lk Cr up by 12.5%
 Direct Tax Mop-up at Rs 3.96 Lk Cr up by 14.5%

China's Non manufacturing PMI came at 56% compared to 49.7% for the month of November.The manufacturing PMI came at 50.3% compared to 49% in November.

EU shares edged lower as the Hungary's Forint fell lower against Euro and the Italian UniCredit SpA launched a 51000 Crore($9.68 billion) worth of rights issue at a huge discount.

US markets closed almost flat for the day.

I expect our markets to open lower tracking the Asian peers and keep an eye on stocks like HeroMotocorp,RIL,ONGC.Inflation data for the Week ended December 24th to be released for the day.After 2 weeks of euphoria the European debt crisis is popping up again.Keep an eye on European indices.


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Market Report

Yesterday ,Nifty futures opened at 4680.55(It was the day's low as well) and there was no looking back.We closed near the day's high for the day.India's PMI ,direct entry for individual FIIs into equity markets were the good news in the domestic front.Interest rate sensitive stocks rallied for the day as the Central Bank hinted at easing the monetary policy.A postponement in the fuel price hike supported the sentiment as well(It was widely expected that the petrol prices would be hiked by 2Rs to a liter).

A good set of economic data from the EU supported the rally in the later part of the day.German unemployment fell more than expected and UK's PMI rose by 2 points in December to 49.6 compared to 47.7(revised) in the month of November.Both these data surprised the markets positively.

If you remember SEBI had earlier directed the promoters to dilute their stake to 75% or below before June 2013.But QIP placement to dilute the same has not been allowed.To facilitate the dilution of promoter shares SEBI had yesterday allowed the auctioning of the promoter stake through the secondary markets.This move would help the divestment plans of the Government and aimed at helping the promoters to raise capital either by diluting their stakes or by issuing fresh equity.

In the macro economic front, Iran conducted its Missiles tests and had warned USA of an attack if the USA's air craft carrier enters into the territorial waters of Iran again.And tension is mounting between Turkey and Syria as a Russian aircraft carrier and a number of Navy ships are sent to Syria,mentioned Syrian newspaper Al Watan.After a long gap Russia is seen entering into the International arena with its Military supremacy.Russia had earlier supplied Syria with its supersonic anti-ship Missiles.

These developments had sent the crude and Gold prices higher.

Nikkei had opened after a 2 day holiday and is trading higher by more than a percentage.Hang Seng trades marginally negative.

I expect our markets to open flat to positive and traders can book profits in their longs around 4800 levels.Stay cautious at higher levels.

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Tribute to Pepsi by Kajal.

Here is another poem by a sweet lil friend Kajal Sinha on Pepsi.

Pepsi,you are missed so damn badly
since the time you left us lonely
No one did smile hardly :(
I weep looking at those sweet you used to eat
Without you, home is so quiet

Your friends,"cockroaches,chameleons,rats", are ready to pay a visit
I wish wherever you are,stay happily
We will be missing you badly :(

Tribute to pepsi by a friend.

A fellow stock Broker/Trader Raghu had written a poem for Pepsi.I am posting it on his behalf.Thank you Raghu for sharing my grief.


Pepsi Pepsi Pepsi O Pet

I can’t forget u oh pussycat

Just wanna say love you much

Thank you for your loving touch

You were our darling baby

Going to miss you like a crazy

You were one in our family

Fell in love with you totally

You never said you were leaving

Just wanna say good bye darling

Eulogy for our cat(Pepsi).

One and half years back our old cat had given birth to 3 kittens and Pepsi was one among them.It had pitch black coat when the other 2 had fancy white colors with grey patches.Other than its yellow eyes,white teeth and white claws it was black.My cousin, Rajesh took one white colored one and my neighbor took the other one.There were no takers for Pepsi.
 No one liked it because of its coat color.Even mom wanted to get rid of it.Grandma started talking about superstitious beliefs.But I started loving the color and it stayed in my room.We did not have her mom as our pet, but her mom stayed with us and ate in our home.Pepsi's mom was feeding Pepsi and we did not worry initially for feeding it.Meanwhile Rajesh named his  kitten Chitti and it became so close with Aunt,Uncle, Mahesh(Rajesh's bro). Aunt (mom's sister) used to call mom and started talking about the things chitti do at their home.

Dad and me funnily used to talk about pepsi, how it escaped when Rajesh was catching Chitti to take it to his home.If Rajesh would have taken Pepsi,it would be enjoying their love and affection.Dad never worried about the coat color like me.Unlike other kittens Pepsi never gave us any trouble.It was 1 year back when we were painting our home and we saw a rat in the store room.Myself and the painters tried hard to kill it and Pepsi was outside playing in the garden.This rat escaped from us and ventured into the garden.One of the painter said, a cat had caught the rat.I thought it would be Pepsi's mom.To everyone's surprise, it was Pepsi who caught the rat and not her mom.It was having the rat in its jaws from morning to evening and was running in the garden happily.Pepsi was just 3 months old at that time.

And few days later my friend Lingam came to our house and Pepsi was sleeping on a chair and Lingam mistook it for a piece of velvet cloth.He took some photos and when he left Mom asked me, what Lingam was saying about the cat.I told her a lie that Lingam wanted the cat and  if she allows he would take that to his home.Mom became possessive and she said no to the idea and told me that it is not troubling us and we shall have it.

Since then it became close with everyone in the family.It had put pugs to shame by following my mom wherever she went in the home.It never disturbs anyone.While we were sleeping it stayed awake like a dog and our house and store room was free of rodents.Even I could not see any lizards or cockroaches in the house and garden nowadays.

Few months back one day it came running into our bedroom with a squirrel in its mouth and it had let the squirrel from the jaw to eat/kill it and suddenly the squirrel ran away.It was furious and for the first day I saw Pepsi roaring.It has got an ego which I have never seen in an animal.It was so restless and it was running here and there.And 2 days later,I saw Pepsi sitting on our compound wall near a hideout and it was like it expected something.Four days later Pepsi caught the same Squirrel and killed it and made our Bathroom like a butcher shop.

Once it had caught a big chameleon and was playing with it for a whole day.Our big Neem tree in our house which houses many birds became very active today,as Pepsi passed away early morning today.It did not eat since new year and yesterday it became so weak in the evening and the Pet Doctor said, he will visit us today morning.But it is no more now.

I have no companion while trading now.It would be at my feet through out the day.There is no one to follow mom wherever she goes.There is no one to wake mom up.No one to love mom unconditionally like it did.

No one to search mom in every room when she is out of the home to attend any function.No one to sadly look at when mom packs her things up for any trip.

Our furry ,little,velvety Pepsi, I wish I could be there with you wherever you are now.Am looking at the door mat where you used to sleep.What to do with the milk sweet you never tasted which I bought for you for New year.

You made everyone cry.We will be missing you badly.With  unconditional love you swept off our feet.

You taught me how to be patient by waiting for 4 days for the squirrel.You taught me not to be greedy by not eating more than 1 biscuit at a time though you loved it very much.You taught me how to concentrate on the target without getting diverted.

It was very painful to watch you die.Now you were put to rest in the garden I can hear the sounds of squirrels and the birds in our garden.Are they missing you too?